MeritValue

PHINIA INC.

PHINdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PHINIA INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.59 and $240.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.23B1$3.35B2$3.5B3$3.4B3$3.48B3
Net income$152M4$262M5$102M6$79M6$130M6
Operating cash flow$147M7$303M8$250M9$308M9$312M9
Capital expenditure$146M10$107M11$150M12$105M12$124M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1M7$196M8$100M9$203M9$188M9
Total debt—$26M13$1.52B14$1.98B15$1.94B15
Cash & equivalents$259M16$251M17$365M18$484M19$359M19
Diluted shares47.0M47.0M47.0M44.8M40.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$395.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$483.79

10 shares is a claim on $395.76 of net worth that earned you $32.42 and generated $46.88 of cash last year, against $483.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 19%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 7362% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.59 and $240.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$240.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$188M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$188M
Earnings Power Value
$33.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$130M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.56
Base20.0%$113.43
Bull20.0%$113.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001968915-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001968915-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001968915-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)