MeritValue

Parker-Hannifin Corp

PHdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Parker-Hannifin Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $165.78 and $601.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.3B1$15.9B2$19.1B3$19.9B3$19.9B3
Net income$1.75B4$1.32B5$2.08B5$2.84B5$3.53B6
Operating cash flow$2.58B7$2.44B8$2.98B9$3.38B9$3.78B9
Capital expenditure$210M10$230M11$381M12$400M12$435M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.37B7$2.21B8$2.6B9$2.98B9$3.34B9
Total debt$13.2B13$23.2B14$27.1B14$11.8B15$9.31B15
Cash & equivalents$733.1M16$535.8M17$475.2M18$422M19$467M19
Diluted shares130.8M130.4M129.9M130.2M130.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,050.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$271.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$256.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$714.9

10 shares is a claim on $1,050.84 of net worth that earned you $271.27 and generated $256.61 of cash last year, against $714.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 5%FY23 7%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $165.78 and $601.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$601.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.5%
  • fcfBase$2.98B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$444.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.5%
  • fcfBase$2.98B
Earnings Power Value
$165.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.08B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$253.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $444.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$259.55
Base10.5%$444.06
Bull15.5%$558.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-22-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000076334-22-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000076334-23-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000076334-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000076334-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)