MeritValue

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

PGYdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. earns about -39% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 411% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.61 and $24.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$445.9M1$685.4M2$772.8M3$1B3$1.26B3
Net income−$91.2M4−$302.3M5−$128.4M6−$401.4M6$81.4M6
Operating cash flow$49.8M7−$40M8−$21.7M9$47.8M9$238.6M9
Capital expenditure$6.62M10$22.4M11$20.2M12$17.7M12$13.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$43.2M7−$62.4M8−$41.8M9$30M9$224.7M9
Total debt$013$61.8M14$37.7M14$321.3M15—
Cash & equivalents$190.8M16$309.8M17$186.5M18$187.9M18$235.3M18
Diluted shares16.3M38.3M60.0M70.9M83.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.04
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $57.77 of net worth that earned you $9.79 and generated $27.04 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-39% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -71%FY23 -35%FY24 -72%FY25 21%

It earned about -39% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+411% shares · 5y

Share count is up 411% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.61 and $24.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$10.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.99
Base20.0%$14.61
Bull20.0%$14.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001883085-26-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001883085-26-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001883085-26-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001883085-26-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-23-000041 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001883085-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883085-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001883085-26-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)