MeritValue

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/

PGRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.77 and $1,504.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$47.7B1$49.6B2$62.1B3$75.4B3$87.7B3
Net income$3.35B4$722M5$3.9B6$8.48B6$11.3B6
Operating cash flow$7.76B7$6.85B8$10.6B9$15.1B9$17.5B9
Capital expenditure$243.5M10$292M11$252M12$285M12$348M12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.52B7$6.56B8$10.4B9$14.8B9$17.2B9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$202M17$221M18$100M18$154M18$138M18
Diluted shares587.1M587.1M587.5M587.7M588.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$515.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$192.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$292.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $515.61 of net worth that earned you $192.28 and generated $292.47 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 6%FY23 20%FY24 34%FY25 38%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.77 and $1,504.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,504.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$14.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$822.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$14.8B
Earnings Power Value
$68.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.9B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$149.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $822.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$360.62
Base20.0%$822.61
Bull20.0%$822.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-23-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-24-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000080661-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000080661-26-000086 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)