Progyny, Inc.
PGNYdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on fileProgyny, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.75 and $124.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $500.6M1 | $786.9M2 | $1.09B3 | $1.17B3 | $1.29B3 |
| Net income | $65.8M4 | $30.4M5 | $62M6 | $54.3M6 | $58.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $26M7 | $80.4M8 | $188.8M9 | $179.1M9 | $210.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.13M10 | $3.24M11 | $3.64M12 | $5.41M12 | $18.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $23.9M7 | $77.2M8 | $185.2M9 | $173.7M9 | $191.8M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $91.4M13 | $120.1M14 | $97.3M15 | $162.3M15 | $112.2M15 |
| Diluted shares | 100.4M | 100.0M | 100.7M | 95.4M | 89.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $57.43 of net worth that earned you $6.51 and generated $21.34 of cash last year.
It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.75 and $124.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$185.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$185.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$58.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $30.69 |
| Base | 20.0% | $68.43 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $68.43 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551306-24-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551306-25-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551306-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551306-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551306-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551306-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551306-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551306-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551306-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551306-24-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551306-25-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551306-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551306-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551306-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551306-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)