MeritValue

PRECIGEN, INC.

PGENdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PRECIGEN, INC. earns about -270% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.3M1$26.9M1$6.23M2$3.93M2$9.68M2
Net income−$92.2M3$28.3M4−$95.9M5−$126.2M5−$250.6M5
Operating cash flow−$55.8M6−$65M7−$66.9M8−$68.2M8−$87.8M8
Capital expenditure$7.25M9$4.92M10$1.54M11$8.58M11$2M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$63M6−$70M7−$68.5M8−$76.8M8−$89.8M8
Total debt$359.9M12$129.7M12$013$014$186.3M14
Cash & equivalents$36.4M15$4.86M16$7.58M17$29.5M18$30.2M18
Diluted shares197.8M200.4M244.5M267.7M313.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.95

10 shares is a claim on $0.67 of net worth that earned you −$8.01 and generated −$2.87 of cash last year, against $5.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-270% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -25%FY23 -69%FY24 -1124%FY25 -112%

It earned an average -270% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-23-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356090-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356090-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356090-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-24-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356090-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356090-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356090-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001356090-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)