MeritValue

PROCTER & GAMBLE Co

PGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PROCTER & GAMBLE Co earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.57 and $67.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.1B1$80.2B2$82B3$84B3$84.3B3
Net income$14.3B4$14.7B5$14.7B6$14.9B6$16B6
Operating cash flow$18.4B7$16.7B8$16.8B9$19.8B9$17.8B9
Capital expenditure$2.79B10$3.16B11$3.06B12$3.32B12$3.77B12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.6B7$13.6B8$13.8B9$16.5B9$14B9
Total debt$40.8B13$39.9B14$44.8B15$39.6B16$44B16
Cash & equivalents$10.3B17$7.21B18$8.25B18$9.48B18$9.56B18
Diluted shares2.60B2.54B2.48B2.47B2.45B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$213.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$65.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$179.24

10 shares is a claim on $213.02 of net worth that earned you $65.08 and generated $57.22 of cash last year, against $179.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 19%FY23 18%FY24 19%FY25 19%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.57 and $67.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$14B
Earnings Power Value
$62.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.72
Base0.0%$67.72
Bull5.0%$87.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-22-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)