MeritValue

PROCTER & GAMBLE Co

PGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

PROCTER & GAMBLE Co earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.74 and $88.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$80.2B1$82B2$84B3$84.3B3$87B3
Net income$14.7B4$14.7B5$14.9B6$16B6$16B6
Operating cash flow$16.7B7$16.8B8$19.8B9$17.8B9$19.6B9
Capital expenditure$3.16B10$3.06B11$3.32B12$3.77B12$4.41B12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.6B7$13.8B8$16.5B9$14B9$15.1B9
Total debt$39.9B13$44.8B14$39.6B15$44B16$45.4B16
Cash & equivalents$7.21B17$8.25B18$9.48B18$9.56B18$9.94B18
Diluted shares2.54B2.48B2.47B2.45B2.42B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$66.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$187.54

10 shares is a claim on $224.19 of net worth that earned you $66.24 and generated $62.53 of cash last year, against $187.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY22 19%FY23 18%FY24 19%FY25 19%FY26 18%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.74 and $88.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$88.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$15.1B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$15.1B
Earnings Power Value
$62.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.9B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)9.07%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.86
Base3.2%$85.89
Bull8.2%$109.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-23-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-24-000083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000080424-25-000076 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000080424-26-000103 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)