MeritValue

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL SERVICES INC

PFSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL SERVICES INC earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 70% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.33 and $195.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$57.6M1$55M2$57.5M3$68.3M3$73.1M3
Net income$167.9M4$175.6M5$128.4M6$115.5M6$291.2M6
Operating cash flow$156.8M7$200.3M8$173.4M9$426.4M9$442.3M9
Capital expenditure$13.8M10$9.41M11$7.49M12$1.31M12$11.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$143M7$190.9M8$165.9M9$425.1M9$430.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$685.2M13$186.4M14$180.2M14$205.9M14$209.1M14
Diluted shares76.6M74.8M74.9M109.7M130.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $217.09 of net worth that earned you $22.31 and generated $33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 15%FY23 19%FY24 24%FY25 32%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+70% shares · 5y

Share count is up 70% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.33 and $195.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$195.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$425.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$425.1M
Earnings Power Value
$13.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$167.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.14
Base20.0%$107.79
Bull20.0%$107.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007678 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008991 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012814 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007678 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008991 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012814 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007678 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008991 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012814 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007678 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008991 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012814 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008991 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)