MeritValue

PEOPLES FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP.

PFISdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

PEOPLES FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP. earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 39% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.22 and $69.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$94.1M1$111.3M2$149.9M3$211.5M3$259.7M3
Net income$43.5M4$38.1M5$27.4M6$8.5M6$59.2M6
Operating cash flow$40.8M7$42.4M8$33.3M9$34.7M9$54.3M9
Capital expenditure$4.89M10$7.83M11$5.93M12$2.58M12$10.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$35.9M7$34.5M8$27.3M9$32.2M9$43.3M9
Total debt—$114.9M13$17.6M14$15.9M14$32.7M14
Cash & equivalents$279.9M15$37.9M16$187.4M17$135.9M18$269M18
Diluted shares7.2M7.2M7.2M8.6M10.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$516.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.48

10 shares is a claim on $516.03 of net worth that earned you $58.75 and generated $43.02 of cash last year, against $32.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 85%FY22 13%FY23 47%FY24 36%FY25 69%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 5y

Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.22 and $69.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.2M
Earnings Power Value
$39.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$38.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.92%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$69.12
Base0.0%$69.12
Bull5.0%$80.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003373 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003373 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003373 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003373 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003863 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003373 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003995 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028106 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)