MeritValue

PACIFIC HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION INC

PFHOdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PACIFIC HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION INC earns about 34% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.71 and $2.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.4M1$5.74M2$5.63M3$6.07M4$6.72M4
Net income$995,0205$492,8866$767,9287$883,5848$1.39M8
Operating cash flow$386,3919$711,23710$932,35911$675,08412$1.16M12
Capital expenditure$18,37613$38,86714$17,51615$9,13116$23,27916
Free cash flow (derived)$368,0159$672,37010$914,84311$665,95312$1.14M12
Total debt———$35,30517—
Cash & equivalents$10.1M18$2.04M19$2.49M20$2.07M21$2.17M21
Diluted shares12.8M12.8M12.8M12.8M12.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.2 of net worth that earned you $1.08 and generated $0.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
34% avg · 5y
FY21 134%FY22 5%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 13%

It earned about 34% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.71 and $2.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$914,843
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$914,843
Earnings Power Value
$0.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$883,584
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.19
Base10.8%$1.78
Bull15.8%$2.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000301 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000392 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000897 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000301 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000392 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000897 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000301 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000392 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000897 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000301 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000392 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000897 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000301 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000392 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000193 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-000897 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)