MeritValue

Performance Food Group Co

PFGCdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Performance Food Group Co earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.4 and $220.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$50.9B1$57.3B2$58.3B3$63.3B3$67.8B3
Net income$112.5M4$397.2M5$435.9M6$340.2M6$359.3M6
Operating cash flow$276.5M7$832.1M8$1.16B9$1.21B9$1.41B9
Capital expenditure$215.5M10$269.7M11$395.6M12$506M12$384.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$61M7$562.4M8$767.4M9$704.1M9$1.03B9
Total debt$7.82B13$6.92B14$6.4B15$10.8B16$10B16
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares151.3M156.1M156.0M156.4M157.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$312.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$65.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$637.81

10 shares is a claim on $312.06 of net worth that earned you $22.89 and generated $65.58 of cash last year, against $637.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 4%FY26 4%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.4 and $220.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$220.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$767.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$767.4M
Earnings Power Value
$23.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$359.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.73
Base20.0%$92.32
Bull20.0%$92.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001193125-26-346886 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001193125-26-346886 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001193125-26-346886 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001193125-26-346886 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-28 · accession 0001193125-26-346886 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)