MeritValue

Performance Food Group Co

PFGCdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Performance Food Group Co earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.54 and $199.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$30.4B1$50.9B2$57.3B3$58.3B3$63.3B3
Net income$40.7M4$112.5M5$397.2M6$435.9M6$340.2M6
Operating cash flow$64.6M7$276.5M8$832.1M9$1.16B9$1.21B9
Capital expenditure$188.8M10$215.5M11$269.7M12$395.6M12$506M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$124.2M7$61M8$562.4M9$767.4M9$704.1M9
Total debt$4.48B13$7.82B14$6.92B15$6.4B16$10.8B16
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares133.4M151.3M156.1M156.0M156.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$285.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$689.1

10 shares is a claim on $285.96 of net worth that earned you $21.75 and generated $45.02 of cash last year, against $689.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 4%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 141% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.54 and $199.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$199.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$704.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$77.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$704.1M
Earnings Power Value
$22.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$340.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $77.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$4.59
Base20.0%$77.87
Bull20.0%$77.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000950170-22-017624 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000950170-23-043011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000950170-24-097033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001618673-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)