MeritValue

PFIZER INC

PFEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PFIZER INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.32 and $14.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$73.6B1$91.8B1$50.9B1$63.6B2$62.6B2
Net income$22B3$31.4B4$2.12B5$8.03B5$7.77B5
Operating cash flow$32.6B6$29.3B7$8.7B8$12.7B8$11.7B8
Capital expenditure$2.71B9$3.24B10$3.91B11$2.91B11$2.63B11
Free cash flow (derived)$29.9B6$26B7$4.79B8$9.84B8$9.08B8
Total debt$40.1B12$38.4B13$82.1B14$70.6B15$67.8B15
Cash & equivalents$1.94B16$416M17$2.85B18$1.04B19$1.14B19
Diluted shares5.71B5.73B5.71B5.70B5.71B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$151.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$118.66

10 shares is a claim on $151.37 of net worth that earned you $13.6 and generated $15.88 of cash last year, against $118.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 24%FY23 2%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 69% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.32 and $14.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$9.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$9.08B
Earnings Power Value
$14.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.03
Base0.0%$11.03
Bull5.0%$16.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078003-25-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078003-25-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078003-25-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078003-25-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078003-23-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078003-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078003-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000078003-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)