PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP /MS/

PFBXdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP /MS/ earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.71 and $20.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$8.91M1$8.94M2$9.17M3$21.7M3$3.91M3
Operating cash flow$4.58M4$7.91M5$9.05M6$6.03M6$4.5M6
Capital expenditure$1.94M7$2.54M8$977,0008$302,0008
Free cash flow (derived)$2.64M4$6.51M6$5.06M6$4.2M6
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$50M9$32.8M10$22.8M10$107.7M10$19.6M10
Diluted shares4.8M4.7M4.7M4.7M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$218.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.1
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $218.01 of net worth that earned you $8.47 and generated $9.1 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 39%FY23 30%FY24 FY25 25%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.71 and $20.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.06M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.06M
Earnings Power Value
$20.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.94M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.89
Base0.0%$19.89
Bull5.0%$23.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008643 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003310 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-030236 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008643 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003310 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-030236 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-030236 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003310 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-030236 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)