MeritValue

GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.

PEWdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. earns about 223% on equity, but has diluted owners by 95% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$93.1M1$96.4M1
Net income$4.52M2$4.51M2−$2.51M2
Operating cash flow$4.76M3$1.76M3−$417,0003
Capital expenditure—$04$8.47M4
Free cash flow (derived)—$1.76M3−$8.89M3
Total debt—$05$6.89M5
Cash & equivalents$10.7M6$7.89M7$110.4M7
Diluted shares—10.0M19.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.53

10 shares is a claim on $55.09 of net worth that earned you −$1.28 and generated −$4.55 of cash last year, against $3.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
223% avg · 3y
FY23 347%FY24 324%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 223% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+95% shares · 3y

Share count is up 95% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.51M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (LongTermDebt)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104172 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)