MeritValue

PHOENIX MOTOR INC.

PEVMdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PHOENIX MOTOR INC. earns about -45% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 109% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$2.98M1$4.33M2$3.12M3$31.2M3
Net income−$14.6M4−$12.7M5−$20.6M6$7.93M6
Operating cash flow−$12.9M7−$14.9M8−$3.65M9−$1.95M9
Capital expenditure$638,00010$1.28M11$93,00012$113,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$13.6M7−$16.2M8−$3.75M9−$2.06M9
Total debt$1.53M13$300,00014$1.26M15$1.29M15
Cash & equivalents$2.68M16$139,00017$31,00018$764,00018
Diluted shares17.5M19.7M21.2M36.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.35

10 shares is a claim on $2.82 of net worth that earned you $2.17 and generated −$0.56 of cash last year, against $0.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-45% avg · 4y
FY21 -127%FY22 -81%FY23 —FY24 74%

It earned an average -45% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+109% shares · 4y

Share count is up 109% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$1.15
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000543 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000471 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-013062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)