MeritValue

TDH Holdings, Inc.

PETZdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TDH Holdings, Inc. earns about 23% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 98% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.08M1$24,7262$7543$563,7263$1.25M3
Net income−$6.12M4$803,7005−$23.6M6$2.68M6$1.8M6
Operating cash flow−$3.3M7−$2.07M8−$564,3969−$233,9879−$1.78M9
Capital expenditure——$7,65510$1.88M10$244,08810
Free cash flow (derived)——−$572,0519−$2.12M9−$2.02M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$18M11$20M12$13.1M13$15.7M13$19.1M13
Diluted shares5.2M8.0M10.3M10.3M10.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$29.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.96
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $29.68 of net worth that earned you $1.74 and generated −$1.96 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 121%FY23 -58%FY24 17%FY25 12%

It earned an average 23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+98% shares · 5y

Share count is up 98% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$803,700
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035775 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045630 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035775 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045630 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035775 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045630 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045630 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037206 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035775 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045630 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)