Perion Network Ltd.

PERIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Perion Network Ltd. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.53 and $15.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$478.5M1$640.3M2$743.2M3$498.3M3$439.9M3
Net income$38.7M4$97.5M5$115M6$12.6M6−$7.93M6
Operating cash flow$71.1M7$122.1M8$155.5M9$6.94M9$41.9M9
Capital expenditure$627,00010$1.06M11$811,00012$6.87M12$3.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$70.5M7$121.1M8$154.7M9$67,0009$38.1M9
Total debt$013
Cash & equivalents$104.4M14$176.2M15$187.6M16$156.2M16$90M16
Diluted shares37.8M48.1M50.1M49.6M42.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$160.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.06
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $160.58 of net worth that earned you −$1.88 and generated $9.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 24%FY23 22%FY24 2%FY25 -1%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.53 and $15.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$38.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$38.1M
Earnings Power Value
$9.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$38.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.08
Base0.0%$15.08
Bull5.0%$18.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001251 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001021 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000927 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001251 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000927 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001251 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001251 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000927 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-22-001146 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001251 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000927 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)