MeritValue

PEPSICO INC

PEPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PEPSICO INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.23 and $67.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$79.5B1$86.4B2$91.5B3$91.9B3$93.9B3
Net income$7.62B4$8.91B5$9.07B6$9.58B6$8.24B6
Operating cash flow$11.6B7$10.8B8$13.4B9$12.5B9$12.1B9
Capital expenditure$4.63B10$5.21B11$5.52B12$5.32B12$4.42B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.99B7$5.6B8$7.92B9$7.19B9$7.67B9
Total debt$80.2B13$77.8B14$85.6B15$85.5B16$95.5B16
Cash & equivalents$5.6B17$4.95B18$9.71B19$8.51B20$9.16B20
Diluted shares1.39B1.39B1.38B1.38B1.37B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$148.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$55.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$695.8

10 shares is a claim on $148.62 of net worth that earned you $60.01 and generated $55.88 of cash last year, against $695.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 11%FY23 10%FY24 11%FY25 9%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.23 and $67.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$7.67B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$7.67B
Earnings Power Value
$67.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.91B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.93
Base6.4%$42.23
Bull11.4%$66.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000077476-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077476-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000077476-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000077476-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)