MeritValue

PENN Entertainment, Inc.

PENNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PENN Entertainment, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.91B1$6.4B1$6.36B1$6.58B2$6.96B2
Net income$420.8M3$222.1M4−$490M5−$311.5M5−$843.1M5
Operating cash flow$896.1M6$878.2M7$455.9M8$359.3M8$508.2M8
Capital expenditure$244.1M9$263.4M9$360M10$482.7M10$647.7M10
Free cash flow (derived)$652M6$614.8M7$95.9M8−$123.4M8−$139.5M8
Total debt$5.58B11$5.6B12$5.56B13$5.57B14$5.79B14
Cash & equivalents$1.86B15$1.62B16$1.07B17$706.6M17$686.6M17
Diluted shares175.5M176.6M152.1M152.1M144.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$126.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$58.31
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$400.5

10 shares is a claim on $126.83 of net worth that earned you −$58.31 and generated −$9.65 of cash last year, against $400.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 12%FY23 -0%FY24 1%FY25 -9%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921738-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921738-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-23-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921738-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921738-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921738-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921738-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921738-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)