MeritValue

Penumbra Inc

PENdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Penumbra Inc earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.7 and $76.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$747.6M1$847.1M2$1.06B3$1.19B3$1.4B3
Net income$5.28M4−$2M5$91M6$14M6$177.7M6
Operating cash flow$9.5M7−$55.7M8$97.3M9$168.5M9$238.7M9
Capital expenditure$21.2M10$19.3M11$15.2M12$21.2M12$63.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.7M7−$75M8$82.1M9$147.3M9$174.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$59.4M13$69.9M14$167.5M15$324.4M16$186.9M16
Diluted shares37.9M37.8M39.2M39.3M39.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $363.33 of net worth that earned you $45.22 and generated $44.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 0%FY23 8%FY24 2%FY25 14%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.7 and $76.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$76.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$147.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$147.3M
Earnings Power Value
$3.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.32
Base5.0%$71.28
Bull10.0%$86.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321732-24-000025 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321732-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321732-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321732-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321732-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321732-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321732-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321732-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321732-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321732-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321732-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321732-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321732-23-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321732-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321732-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001321732-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)