MeritValue

PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC

PEGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC earns about 3% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $36.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.3B1$11.2B2$9.25B3$9.87B3$12.1B3
Net income−$648M4$1.03B5$2.56B6$1.77B6$2.11B6
Operating cash flow$1.74B7$1.5B8$3.81B9$2.13B9$3.3B9
Capital expenditure$2.72B10$2.89B11$3.33B12$3.38B12$3.27B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$983M7−$1.39B8$481M9−$1.25B9$26M9
Total debt$35.4B13$38.3B14$39.5B15$43.8B16$46.6B16
Cash & equivalents$818M17$465M18$54M19$125M20$132M20
Diluted shares504.0M501.0M500.0M500.0M501.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$338.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$42.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$930.52

10 shares is a claim on $338.96 of net worth that earned you $42.14 and generated $0.52 of cash last year, against $930.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 3%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 32% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$26M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$26M
Earnings Power Value
$36.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004411 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006885 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026874 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077446 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)