MeritValue

PEDEVCO CORP

PEDdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PEDEVCO CORP earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 94% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.9M1$30.8M2$30.8M3$39.6M4$45.8M4
Net income−$1.3M5$2.84M6$1.7M7$12.3M8−$10.4M8
Operating cash flow$5.97M9$16M10$23.5M11$12.8M12$10.8M12
Capital expenditure—$013$45,00013——
Free cash flow (derived)—$16M10$23.4M11——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$25.9M14$29.4M14$18.5M15$4.01M16$3.22M16
Diluted shares80.0M85.5M87.0M4.5M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$449.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.45
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $449.32 of net worth that earned you −$22.45 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 2%FY24 5%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−94% shares · 5y

Share count is down 94% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-003759 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003240 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-012381 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-003759 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003240 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-012381 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-003759 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003240 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-012381 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003240 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-003759 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-012381 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)