MeritValue

Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.

PECOdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. earns about 3% on equity, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.3M1$11.5M2$9.65M3$10.7M3$12.8M3
Net income$15.1M4$48.3M5$56.8M6$62.7M6$111.3M6
Operating cash flow$262.9M7$290.9M8$291M9$334.7M9$348.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.89B10$1.9B11$1.97B12$2.11B13$2.38B13
Cash & equivalents$92.6M14$5.48M15$4.87M16$4.88M16$3.54M16
Diluted shares116.7M130.3M133.0M136.8M138.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$164.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$171.01

10 shares is a claim on $164.62 of net worth that earned you $8.01 last year, against $171.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$4.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476204-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476204-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001476204-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476204-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476204-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001476204-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476204-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476204-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001476204-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476204-23-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476204-24-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001476204-25-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476204-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476204-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476204-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001476204-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)