MeritValue

PEOPLES BANCORP INC

PEBOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

PEOPLES BANCORP INC earns about 10% on equity, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.29 and $54.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$61.4M1$70M2$79.5M3$84.8M3$86.7M3
Net income$47.6M4$101.3M5$113.4M6$117.2M6$106.8M6
Operating cash flow$156.4M7$119.8M8$143.6M9$143.2M9$134.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.69M10$6.75M11$13.5M12$6.82M12$6.03M12
Free cash flow (derived)$149.7M7$113.1M8$130.2M9$136.4M9$128.7M9
Total debt$266M13$601.2M14$866.7M15$431.5M16$734.4M16
Cash & equivalents$415.7M17$154M18$426.7M19$217.7M20$189M20
Diluted shares22.0M28.0M32.8M35.1M35.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$341.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$207.71

10 shares is a claim on $341.25 of net worth that earned you $30.2 and generated $36.4 of cash last year, against $207.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 13%FY23 11%FY24 11%FY25 9%

It earned about 10% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 176% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.29 and $54.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.8%
  • fcfBase$130.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$49.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.8%
  • fcfBase$130.2M
Earnings Power Value
$31.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$106.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $49.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.18
Base4.8%$49.37
Bull9.8%$64.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-23-000133 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-24-000140 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-24-000140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-24-000140 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-23-000133 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-24-000140 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000318300-23-000133 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000318300-24-000140 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000318300-25-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000318300-26-000099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)