MeritValue

PEOPLES BANCORP OF NORTH CAROLINA INC

PEBKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PEOPLES BANCORP OF NORTH CAROLINA INC earns about 55% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.54 and $72.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$47.2M1$54.4M2$71.9M2$80.7M3$83.6M3
Net income$15.1M4$16.1M5$15.5M5$16.4M6$19.8M6
Operating cash flow$26.9M7$22.6M8$22.8M8$20.6M9$21.4M9
Capital expenditure$484,00010$4.56M11$1.95M11$587,00012$1.41M12
Free cash flow (derived)$26.4M7$18.1M8$20.8M8$20M9$20M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$277.5M13$71.6M13$82.4M14$59.3M15$58.1M15
Diluted shares5.7M5.7M5.6M5.5M5.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$287.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.48
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $287.17 of net worth that earned you $36.24 and generated $36.48 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
55% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 56%FY23 75%FY24 52%FY25 39%

It earned about 55% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.54 and $72.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$72.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.4%
  • fcfBase$20M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.4%
  • fcfBase$20M
Earnings Power Value
$30.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.77
Base3.4%$71.16
Bull8.4%$85.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-002793 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002689 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002154 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-002793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002689 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002154 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-002793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002689 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002154 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-002793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002689 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002154 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-003112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002689 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002154 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)