MeritValue

Palladyne AI Corp.

PDYNdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Palladyne AI Corp. earns about -199% on invested capital, and has bought back 63% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.08M1$14.6M2$6.15M3$7.79M4$5.25M4
Net income−$81.5M5−$157.1M6−$115.6M7−$72.6M8$10M8
Operating cash flow−$42.1M9−$65.4M10−$76.6M11−$22.6M12−$27.6M12
Capital expenditure$4.69M13$1.5M14$782,00015$265,00016$713,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$46.8M9−$66.9M10−$77.4M11−$22.9M12−$28.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$217.1M17$35.2M18$23.1M19$31.2M20$18.2M20
Diluted shares113.2M24.5M25.6M26.8M42.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $17.73 of net worth that earned you $2.38 and generated −$6.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-199% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -115%FY23 -499%FY24 —FY25 17%

It earned an average -199% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−63% shares · 5y

Share count is down 63% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008496 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022168 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092443 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008496 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022168 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092443 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008496 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022168 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092443 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008496 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022168 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024148 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092443 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008496 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022168 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092443 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)