MeritValue

Ponce Financial Group, Inc.

PDLBdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ponce Financial Group, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$67.1M1$82.8M2$125.9M3$162.6M3$185.5M3
Net income$25.4M4−$30M5$3.35M6$11M6$28.7M6
Operating cash flow$18.6M7$9.8M8$6.49M9$7.21M9$55.6M9
Capital expenditure$4.17M10$492,00011$411,00012$2.72M12$978,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$14.4M7$9.31M8$6.08M9$4.49M9$54.6M9
Total debt—$517.4M13$684.4M14$596.1M15$596.1M15
Cash & equivalents$153.9M16$54.4M17$139.2M18$139.8M19$126.2M19
Diluted shares16.8M22.7M22.8M22.6M23.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$258.49

10 shares is a claim on $234.84 of net worth that earned you $12.45 and generated $23.68 of cash last year, against $258.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 90%FY22 -2%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.08M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.08M
Earnings Power Value
$4.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033436 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038826 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104610 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)