MeritValue

PDD Holdings Inc.

PDDdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PDD Holdings Inc. earns about 35% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.7B1$18.9B2$34.9B3$54B4$61.8B5
Net income$1.22B6$4.57B7$8.45B8$15.4B9$14B10
Operating cash flow$4.52B11$7.03B12$13.3B13$16.7B14$15.3B15
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.01B16$4.98B17$8.42B18$7.91B19$15.6B20
Diluted shares5.71B5.8M5.84B5.92B5.93B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.6
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $99.69 of net worth that earned you $23.6 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 38%FY23 47%FY24 44%FY25 32%

It earned an average 35% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.45B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-049283 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049927 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051610 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000951 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050727 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-049283 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049927 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051610 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000951 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050727 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-049283 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051610 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000951 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050727 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-049283 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049927 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051610 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000951 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050727 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)