MeritValue

PagerDuty, Inc.

PDdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PagerDuty, Inc. earns about -20% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.27 and $69.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$281.4M1$370.8M2$430.7M3$467.5M3$492.5M3
Net income−$107.5M4−$128.4M5−$75.2M6−$42.7M6$173.4M6
Operating cash flow−$6.02M7$17M8$72M9$117.9M9$114.9M9
Capital expenditure$3.46M10$4.64M11$2.16M12$2.79M12$2.94M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.48M7$12.3M8$69.8M9$115.1M9$111.9M9
Total debt$300.1M13$296.5M14$489.5M15$484.5M16$420.6M17
Cash & equivalents$349.8M18$274M19$363M20$346.5M20$237.4M20
Diluted shares84.5M88.7M92.3M92.0M93.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$45.23

10 shares is a claim on $27.27 of net worth that earned you $18.64 and generated $12.03 of cash last year, against $45.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-20% avg · 5y
FY22 -37%FY23 -37%FY24 -19%FY25 -12%FY26 5%

It earned about -20% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 40% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.27 and $69.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$69.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$111.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$111.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$10.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.22
Base20.0%$37.27
Bull20.0%$37.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001568100-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001568100-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001568100-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)