MeritValue

Vaxcyte, Inc.

PCVXdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Vaxcyte, Inc. earns about -27% on equity, but has diluted owners by 162% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$100.1M1−$223.5M2−$402.3M3−$463.9M3−$766.6M3
Operating cash flow−$121.4M4−$170.6M5−$296.8M6−$452.6M6−$655.6M6
Capital expenditure$6.56M7$5.84M8$16.1M9$22.4M9$13.7M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$127.9M4−$176.4M5−$312.9M6−$475.1M6−$669.3M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$69M10$834.7M11$397.5M12$387.9M12$174M12
Diluted shares51.9M64.9M97.2M122.0M136.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$56.33
Free cash flow it threw off
−$49.18
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $197.33 of net worth that earned you −$56.33 and generated −$49.18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-27% avg · 5y
FY21 -35%FY22 -23%FY23 -32%FY24 -14%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -27% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+162% shares · 5y

Share count is up 162% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649094-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649094-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649094-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649094-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649094-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649094-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004654 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649094-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649094-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)