MeritValue

PureCycle Technologies, Inc.

PCTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PureCycle Technologies, Inc. earns about -39% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 75% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$01$8.36M1
Net income−$77.5M2−$84.7M3−$101.7M4−$289.1M4−$182.6M4
Operating cash flow−$54.5M5−$65.5M6−$94.9M7−$144.8M7−$142.7M7
Capital expenditure$137.4M8$287.2M9$153.9M10$55.6M10$40.8M10
Free cash flow (derived)−$191.9M5−$352.7M6−$248.8M7−$200.4M7−$183.6M7
Total debt$482.1M11$483.1M11$9.15M12$12.9M12—
Cash & equivalents$33.4M13$63.9M14$73.4M15$15.7M15$156.7M15
Diluted shares103.0M156.2M164.0M165.4M180.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.54 of net worth that earned you −$10.12 and generated −$10.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-39% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -7%FY23 -15%FY24 -129%FY25 —

It earned an average -39% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+75% shares · 5y

Share count is up 75% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076801 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001830033-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028422 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076801 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001830033-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028422 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076801 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001830033-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028422 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076801 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001830033-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028422 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001830033-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028422 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076801 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)