MeritValue

PG&E Corp

PCGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PG&E Corp earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.6B1$21.7B2$24.4B3$24.4B3$24.9B3
Net income−$88M4$1.81B5$2.26B6$2.51B6$2.7B6
Operating cash flow$2.26B7$3.72B8$4.75B9$8.04B9$8.72B9
Capital expenditure$7.69B10$9.58B11$9.71B12$10.4B12$11.8B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.43B7−$5.86B8−$4.97B9−$2.33B9−$3.07B9
Total debt$44.9B13$99.8B14$107.3B15$110.8B16$118.3B16
Cash & equivalents$291M17$734M18$635M19$940M19$713M19
Diluted shares1.99B2.13B2.14B2.15B2.20B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$147.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$537.1

10 shares is a claim on $147.77 of net worth that earned you $12.28 and generated −$13.95 of cash last year, against $537.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 163% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$10.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.26B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-23-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)