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PG&E Corp

PCGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PG&E Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.25 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.6B1$21.7B2$24.4B3$24.4B3$24.9B3
Net income−$88M4$1.81B5$2.26B6$2.51B6$2.7B6
Operating cash flow$2.26B7$3.72B8$4.75B9$8.04B9$8.72B9
Capital expenditure$7.69B10$9.58B11$9.71B12$10.4B12$11.8B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.43B7,10−$5.86B8,11−$4.97B9,12−$2.33B9,12−$3.07B9,12
Total debt$44.9B13,14,15$52.1B16,17,18$56.3B19,20,21$57.2B22,23,24$60.9B22,23,24
Cash & equivalents$291M25$734M26$635M27$940M27$713M27
Diluted shares1.99B2.13B2.14B2.15B2.20B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$147.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$276.49

10 shares is a claim on $147.77 of net worth that earned you $12.28 and generated −$13.95 of cash last year, against $276.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 3%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 36% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$10.25
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$2.26B
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.83
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-23-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K filed 2023-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-23-000029 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K filed 2023-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-23-000029 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  21. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  22. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  23. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  24. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  25. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004980-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004980-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004980-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)