PACCAR INC
PCARdata completeness 75%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
PACCAR INC earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.24 and $278.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.5B1 | $28.8B2 | $35.1B3 | $33.7B3 | $28.4B3 |
| Net income | $1.87B4 | $3.01B5 | $4.6B6 | $4.16B6 | $2.38B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.19B7 | $3.03B8 | $4.19B9 | $4.64B9 | $4.42B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $559.1M10 | $525M11 | $695M12 | $838.7M12 | $743M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.63B7 | $2.5B8 | $3.5B9 | $3.8B9 | $3.67B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 522.7M | 523.4M | 525.0M | 526.6M | 526.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $365.68 of net worth that earned you $45.1 and generated $69.72 of cash last year.
It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.24 and $278.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth14.7%
- fcfBase$3.67B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth14.7%
- fcfBase$3.67B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$3.01B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $99.61 |
| Base | 14.7% | $184.3 |
| Bull | 19.7% | $224.3 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 14.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017900 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023145 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057025 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017900 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023145 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057025 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017900 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017900 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)