MeritValue

PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC.

PBYIdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.42 and $45.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$253.2M1$228M2$235.6M3$230.5M3$228.4M3
Net income−$29.1M4$2,0005$21.6M6$30.3M6$31.1M6
Operating cash flow$20.7M7−$15.8M8$27M9$38.9M9$41.8M9
Capital expenditure$010$011$140,00012$56,00012$71,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$20.7M7−$15.8M8$26.9M9$38.9M9$41.7M9
Total debt$199.1M13$200.3M14$201.7M15$135.1M16$45.2M16
Cash & equivalents$63.1M17$76.2M18$84.6M19$69.2M20$29.6M20
Diluted shares40.6M44.9M47.6M49.1M50.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.92

10 shares is a claim on $25.73 of net worth that earned you $6.14 and generated $8.24 of cash last year, against $8.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 4%FY23 20%FY24 15%FY25 21%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 77% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.42 and $45.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$38.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$38.9M
Earnings Power Value
$4.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.65
Base20.0%$24.71
Bull20.0%$24.71

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005233 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005233 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006121 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005496 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005891 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)