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PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA

PBRdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA earns about 19% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $26.71 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$53.7B1$84B2$124.5B3$102.4B3$91.4B3
Net income$1.14B4$19.9B5$36.6B6$24.9B6$7.53B6
Operating cash flow$28.9B7$37.8B8$49.7B9$43.2B9$38B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$53.9B10$35.7B11$30B12$28.8B13$23.2B13
Cash & equivalents$11.7B14$10.5B15$8B16$12.7B17$3.27B17
Diluted shares7.44B7.44B7.44B7.44B7.44B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.12

10 shares is a claim on $79.42 of net worth that earned you $10.12 last year, against $31.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY20 -0%FY21 21%FY22 40%FY23 26%FY24 10%

It earned an average 19% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 57% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$26.71
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$19.9B
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.18
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F filed 2023-03-29 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001253 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F filed 2024-04-12 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001340 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F filed 2025-04-03 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001352 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F filed 2023-03-29 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001253 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F filed 2024-04-12 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001340 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F filed 2025-04-03 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001352 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F filed 2023-03-29 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001253 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F filed 2024-04-12 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001340 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F filed 2025-04-03 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001352 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F filed 2022-03-30 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-22-001285 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F filed 2023-03-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001253 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F filed 2024-04-12 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001340 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F filed 2025-04-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001352 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F filed 2022-03-30 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-22-001285 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F filed 2023-03-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001253 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F filed 2024-04-12 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001340 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F filed 2025-04-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001352 (CashAndCashEquivalents)