MeritValue

PITNEY BOWES INC /DE/

PBIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PITNEY BOWES INC /DE/ earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.67B1$2.48B2$2.08B3$2.03B3$1.89B3
Net income−$1.35M4$36.9M5−$385.6M6−$203.6M6$144.7M6
Operating cash flow$301.5M7$175M8$80.1M9$229.2M9$383.3M9
Capital expenditure$184M10$82.6M11$78.1M12$72.4M12$66.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$117.5M7$92.4M8$1.98M9$156.8M9$317M9
Total debt$4.67B13$4.44B14$4.29B15$3.84B16$3.99B16
Cash & equivalents$732.5M17$668.3M18$600.1M19$469.7M19$284.9M19
Diluted shares179.1M177.3M175.6M182.5M173.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$46.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.36

10 shares is a claim on −$46.37 of net worth that earned you $8.36 and generated $18.32 of cash last year, against $230.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 6%FY23 1%FY24 -5%FY25 2%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$156.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$156.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-24-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-23-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078814-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078814-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)