Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc.

PBHCdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.29 and $25.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$45.8M1$51.1M2$67.7M3$78.4M4$76.7M4
Net income$12.4M5$12.9M6$9.29M7$3.38M8−$1.93M8
Operating cash flow$20.2M9$21.7M10$15.4M11$11.2M12$11.7M12
Capital expenditure$1.21M13$1.9M14$1.97M15$2.06M16$1.26M16
Free cash flow (derived)$18.9M9$19.8M10$13.5M11$9.15M12$10.4M12
Total debt$77.1M17$116M18$175.6M19$88.1M20$58.1M20
Cash & equivalents$37.1M21$35.3M22$48.7M23$31.6M24$31.2M24
Diluted shares6.0M4.7M4.7M4.7M4.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$258.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$122.38

10 shares is a claim on $258.04 of net worth that earned you −$4.07 and generated $21.95 of cash last year, against $122.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 11%FY23 13%FY24 24%FY25 21%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.29 and $25.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.4M
Earnings Power Value
$20.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.29M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.69
Base0.0%$25.69
Bull5.0%$33.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011185 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035248 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047820 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132075 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)