MeritValue

PBF Energy Inc.

PBFdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PBF Energy Inc. earns about 23% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $20.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.3B1$46.8B2$38.3B3$33.1B3$29.3B3
Net income$231M4$2.88B5$2.14B6−$533.8M6−$158.5M6
Operating cash flow$477.3M7$4.77B8$1.34B9$43.4M9−$78M9
Capital expenditure$249.1M10$633.3M11$659.6M12$390.9M12$705.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$228.2M7$4.14B8$678.9M9−$347.5M9−$783.2M9
Total debt$4.3B13$1.43B14$1.25B15$1.46B16$2.15B16
Cash & equivalents$1.34B17$2.2B18$1.78B19$536.1M20$527.9M20
Diluted shares122.6M126.9M130.5M117.1M114.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$462.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.79
Free cash flow it threw off
−$68.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$186.95

10 shares is a claim on $462.91 of net worth that earned you −$13.79 and generated −$68.15 of cash last year, against $186.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 76%FY23 37%FY24 -9%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$20.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$231M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534504-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534504-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534504-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534504-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)