PROSPERITY BANCSHARES INC
PBdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
PROSPERITY BANCSHARES INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.69 and $77.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.05B1 | $1.09B2 | $1.44B3 | $1.62B3 | $1.57B3 |
| Net income | $519.3M4 | $524.5M5 | $419.3M6 | $479.4M6 | $542.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $694.7M7 | $506.5M8 | $646.4M9 | $472.7M9 | $549.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $19M10 | $42.4M11 | $34.2M12 | $21.1M12 | $32.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $675.7M7 | $464.1M8 | $612.2M9 | $451.6M9 | $517M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 92.7M | 91.6M | 92.9M | 95.0M | 94.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $802.4 of net worth that earned you $57.19 and generated $54.47 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.69 and $77.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$517M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$517M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$519.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $77.82 |
| Base | 0.0% | $77.82 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $96.66 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022171 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029222 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077437 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022171 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029222 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077437 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022171 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077437 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022171 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029222 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077437 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)