MeritValue

Paysign, Inc.

PAYSdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Paysign, Inc. earns about 8% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.66 and $29.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.5M1$38M2$47.3M3$58.4M4$82M4
Net income−$2.72M5$1.03M6$6.46M7$3.82M8$7.55M8
Operating cash flow$15.2M9$25.3M10$27.6M11$22.9M12$52.5M12
Capital expenditure$328,56613$105,18614$262,55615$434,90116$1.21M16
Free cash flow (derived)$14.9M9$25.2M10$27.4M11$22.5M12$51.2M12
Total debt———$017$8M17
Cash & equivalents$7.39M18$89.9M19$109.4M20$122.3M20$165M20
Diluted shares51.0M52.9M54.2M55.6M59.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.34

10 shares is a claim on $8.13 of net worth that earned you $1.27 and generated $8.59 of cash last year, against $1.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 -21%FY22 6%FY23 26%FY24 13%FY25 16%

It earned about 8% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.66 and $29.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$27.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$27.4M
Earnings Power Value
$0.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.82M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.18
Base20.0%$17.59
Bull20.0%$17.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-001661 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001729 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001888 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-001661 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001729 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001888 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-001661 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001729 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001888 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-001661 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001729 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001888 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-22-001854 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001888 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002180 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)