MeritValue

PAID INC

PAYDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PAID INC earns about -105% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.43 and $0.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.9M1$16.6M2$16.6M3$18.6M4$20.7M4
Net income−$696,7605$652,1466$353,2147$763,5928−$368,2438
Operating cash flow$1.2M9$801,41210$235,51611$447,64312−$53,17112
Capital expenditure$1,12013$013$014$6,52615$2,46915
Free cash flow (derived)$1.2M9$801,41210$235,51611$441,11712−$55,64012
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.84M16$1.79M17$1.73M18$1.28M19$1.11M19
Diluted shares7.4M7.8M7.9M8.1M8.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.58 of net worth that earned you −$0.44 and generated −$0.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-105% avg · 5y
FY21 -562%FY22 15%FY23 11%FY24 19%FY25 -11%

It earned about -105% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.43 and $0.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$235,516
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$235,516
Earnings Power Value
$0.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$353,214
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.53
Base0.0%$0.53
Bull5.0%$0.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008832 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010365 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010730 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008832 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010730 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008832 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008832 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010730 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008832 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)