MeritValue

PATRICK INDUSTRIES INC

PATKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PATRICK INDUSTRIES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 48% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.75 and $134.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.08B1$4.88B2$3.47B3$3.72B3$3.95B3
Net income$224.9M4$328.2M5$142.9M6$138.4M6$135.1M6
Operating cash flow$252.1M7$411.7M8$408.7M9$326.8M9$329.4M9
Capital expenditure$64.8M10$79.9M11$59M12$75.7M12$82.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$187.3M7$331.9M8$349.7M9$251.2M9$246.5M9
Total debt$2.65B13$2.58B14$2.06B15$2.65B16$2.59B16
Cash & equivalents$122.8M17$22.8M18$11.4M19$33.6M20$26.4M20
Diluted shares23.4M36.7M33.0M33.7M34.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$341.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$71.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$747.74

10 shares is a claim on $341.92 of net worth that earned you $38.99 and generated $71.16 of cash last year, against $747.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+48% shares · 5y

Share count is up 48% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.75 and $134.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$134.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.3%
  • fcfBase$251.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$86.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.3%
  • fcfBase$251.2M
Earnings Power Value
$42.75
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$142.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $86.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.59
Base10.3%$86.44
Bull15.3%$122.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-23-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076605-23-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076605-24-000078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076605-25-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000076605-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)