MeritValue

UiPath, Inc.

PATHdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UiPath, Inc. earns about -63% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.55 and $12.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$892.3M1$1.06B2$1.31B3$1.43B3$1.61B3
Net income−$525.6M4−$328.4M5−$89.9M6−$73.7M6$282.3M6
Operating cash flow−$55M7−$9.98M8$299.1M9$320.6M9$371.2M9
Capital expenditure$8.88M10$23.8M11$7.34M12$14.9M12$19M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$63.8M7−$33.8M8$291.7M9$305.6M9$352.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.77B13$1.4B14$1.06B15$879.2M16$871.2M16
Diluted shares454.6M548.0M563.9M559.9M544.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.46
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $38.22 of net worth that earned you $5.18 and generated $6.46 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-63% avg · 5y
FY22 -263%FY23 -48%FY24 -6%FY25 -6%FY26 8%

It earned about -63% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.55 and $12.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$305.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$305.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.61
Base5.0%$11.55
Bull10.0%$13.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001734722-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001734722-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001734722-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001734722-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001734722-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001734722-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001734722-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001734722-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001734722-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001734722-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001734722-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001734722-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001734722-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001734722-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001734722-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001734722-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)