MeritValue

Pampa Energy Inc.

PAMdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Pampa Energy Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.07B1$1.51B2$1.83B3$1.73B3$1.88B3
Net income−$367M4$273M5$456M6$302M6$619M6
Operating cash flow$693M7$729M8$619M9$575M9$435M9
Capital expenditure$124M10$206M11$416M12$758M12$447M12
Free cash flow (derived)$569M7$523M8$203M9−$183M9−$12M9
Total debt$1.61B13$1.44B14$1.61B14$1.45B14$2.08B14
Cash & equivalents$141M15$110M16$106M16$171M16$738M16
Diluted shares1.45B1.38B1.38B1.36B1.36B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$15.29

10 shares is a claim on $24.17 of net worth that earned you $4.55 and generated −$0.09 of cash last year, against $15.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY20 9%FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 13%FY24 11%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 29% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$302M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001936 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001730 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001936 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001730 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001936 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001730 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001936 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001730 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-22-001955 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001730 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001504 (CashAndCashEquivalents)