abrdn Palladium ETF Trust

PALLdata completeness 38%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

abrdn Palladium ETF Trust earns about -16% on equity, but has diluted owners by 169% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income−$72.9M1−$60.5M2−$111.4M3−$67.6M3$321.9M3
Operating cash flow
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow (derived)
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares1.8M1.9M2.0M3.2M4.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,106.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$654.99
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $2,106.59 of net worth that earned you $654.99 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -20%FY23 -51%FY24 -19%FY25 31%

It earned an average -16% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+169% shares · 5y

Share count is up 169% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-002923 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839882-25-012446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-004972 (NetIncomeLoss)