MeritValue

PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORP

PAHCdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.3 and $63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$833.4M1$942.3M2$977.9M3$1.02B3$1.3B3
Net income$54.4M4$49.2M5$32.6M6$2.42M6$48.3M6
Operating cash flow$48.3M7$31.6M8$13.3M9$87.6M9$80.1M9
Capital expenditure$29.3M10$37M11$51.8M12$41.2M12$38.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$19M7−$5.4M8−$38.5M9$46.4M9$41.8M9
Total debt—$575.9M13$667.7M14$624.2M14—
Cash & equivalents$50.2M15$74.2M16$41.3M17$70.6M18$68M18
Diluted shares40.5M40.5M40.5M40.5M40.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$70.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.28
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $70.23 of net worth that earned you $11.86 and generated $10.28 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 1%FY25 22%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.3 and $63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.8M
Earnings Power Value
$12.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.37
Base20.0%$35.2
Bull20.0%$35.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011776 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011776 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011776 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011776 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-013940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015357 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012517 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011776 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)