MeritValue

PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC.

PAGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.07 and $173.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$25.6B1$27.8B2$30.9B3$31.9B3$31.8B3
Net income$1.19B4$1.38B5$1.11B6$968.9M6$935.4M6
Operating cash flow$1.29B7$1.46B8$1.15B9$1.23B9$975.1M9
Capital expenditure$248.9M10$282.5M11$386M12$377.8M12$324.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.04B7$1.18B8$759.2M9$852.8M9$650.5M9
Total debt$2.95B13$3.24B14$3.26B15$3.7B16$4.33B16
Cash & equivalents$100.7M17$106.5M18$96.4M19$83.6M20$64.7M20
Diluted shares79.7M74.4M68.0M66.9M66.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$840.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$141.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$654.24

10 shares is a claim on $840.25 of net worth that earned you $141.3 and generated $98.26 of cash last year, against $654.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 19%FY23 14%FY24 11%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.07 and $173.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$87.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$759.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$99.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$759.2M
Earnings Power Value
$173.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.11B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$163.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $99.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$99.41
Base0.0%$99.41
Bull5.0%$139.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-23-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001019849-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001019849-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001019849-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012830 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)