MeritValue

Ranpak Holdings Corp.

PACKdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ranpak Holdings Corp. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$383.9M1$276.4M2$284.8M3$315.5M3$332.7M3
Net income−$2.8M4−$41.4M5−$27.1M6−$21.5M6−$38.3M6
Operating cash flow$54.3M7$1.1M8$52.6M9$41.4M9$23.1M9
Capital expenditure$54.5M10$44.8M10$55.3M10——
Free cash flow (derived)−$200,0007−$43.7M8−$2.7M9——
Total debt$802.2M11$785.3M12$799.7M13$811.2M14$802.2M14
Cash & equivalents$103.9M15$62.8M16$62M17$76.1M18$63M18
Diluted shares78.5M81.9M82.4M83.1M84.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.55
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$95.29

10 shares is a claim on $63.54 of net worth that earned you −$4.55 last year, against $95.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -2%FY23 -0%FY24 -1%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012927 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012927 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011163 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012927 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011163 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031390 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012927 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)