MeritValue

PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC.

PACBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. earns about -34% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$130.5M1$128.3M2$200.5M3$154M3$160M3
Net income−$181.2M4−$314.2M5−$306.7M6−$309.9M6−$546.4M6
Operating cash flow−$111.2M7−$263.2M8−$259.2M9−$206.1M9−$111.2M9
Capital expenditure$5.93M10$16.8M11$8.84M12$6.19M12$2.71M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$117.1M7−$280M8−$268M9−$212.2M9−$113.9M9
Total debt$897.7M13$898.5M14$490,00015$015—
Cash & equivalents$460.7M16$325.1M17$179.9M18$55.4M18$63.7M18
Diluted shares204.1M224.6M253.6M288.4M300.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.18 of net worth that earned you −$18.22 and generated −$3.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-34% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 -21%FY23 -46%FY24 -54%FY25 —

It earned an average -34% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-24-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-22-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299130-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299130-25-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299130-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)