MeritValue

PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP

PAASdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 100% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.42 and $57.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.63B1$1.49B2$2.32B3$2.82B4$3.62B4
Net income$98.6M5−$340.1M6−$104.9M7$113M8$980M8
Operating cash flow$392.1M9$31.8M10$450.2M11$724M12$1.33B12
Capital expenditure$243.5M13$274.7M14$379M15$323M16$314M16
Free cash flow (derived)$148.6M9−$242.9M10$71.2M11$401M12$1.02B12
Total debt——$704M17$709M17$714M17
Cash & equivalents$283.6M18$107M19$400M20$863M20$1.22B20
Diluted shares210.5M210.7M364.7M363.0M421.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$165.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.93

10 shares is a claim on $165.87 of net worth that earned you $23.23 and generated $24.16 of cash last year, against $16.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -11%FY23 -0%FY24 5%FY25 16%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100% shares · 5y

Share count is up 100% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.42 and $57.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$401M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$401M
Earnings Power Value
$2.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$98.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.77
Base20.0%$32.18
Bull20.0%$32.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000771992-23-000021 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000771992-24-000031 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-25-000015 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000771992-23-000021 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000771992-24-000031 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-25-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000771992-23-000021 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000771992-24-000031 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-25-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000771992-23-000021 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000771992-24-000031 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-25-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000771992-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000771992-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000771992-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalents)